The Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA) has warned that the United States’ recently introduced 14% tariff on Nigerian exports could significantly undermine the country’s foreign exchange (FX) inflows and destabilize key sectors of the economy.
Speaking at a forum in Lagos, NACCIMA President Dele Kelvin Oye described the policy shift as a major threat to Nigeria’s trade competitiveness and economic stability. The tariff, which was introduced under the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump, targets critical Nigerian exports such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and agricultural products—all major contributors to Nigeria’s FX earnings.
“The potential decline in export demand could trigger job losses, worsen economic instability, and severely impact our non-oil sectors,” Oye cautioned.
He further criticized the move as a departure from the cooperative, rules-based trade framework under the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and a sign of rising unilateral and protectionist tendencies in global trade.
“This policy disrupts established global supply chains and erodes Nigeria’s competitive edge in international trade,” he said.
Beyond tariffs, Oye raised concern over the U.S. government’s recent $51 million cut to its Development Fund, which has historically supported entrepreneurship and innovation in African countries including Nigeria and Kenya. He warned that the withdrawal of this support poses a significant threat to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which depend on such funding to access capital, scale operations, and innovate.
“These grants have been instrumental in empowering local entrepreneurs. Their withdrawal adds another hurdle to the growth of our SMEs,” he said.
Despite the challenges, Oye urged Nigerian policymakers and private sector leaders to view the situation as an opportunity to diversify trade partnerships and deepen regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
He called for a pivot toward emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil, while advocating for greater intra-African trade, investment in transport and logistics infrastructure, and improvements in human capital development through vocational education and skills training.
“We must equip our people with the skills needed for future industries and invest in infrastructure that lowers trade costs and attracts foreign investment,” Oye added.
Meanwhile, global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings offered a broader perspective, suggesting that while the U.S. aid freeze and rising global trade tensions pose challenges, they are unlikely to trigger widespread credit downgrades across Africa.
Paul Gamble, Head of the Middle East and Africa division at Fitch’s Sovereign Ratings Group, stated that most African economies remain relatively insulated due to their limited integration into global manufacturing supply chains and recent domestic reforms.
“The structural reforms we’ve observed in several African economies have positioned them to better absorb external shocks,” Gamble said during a virtual briefing.
Fitch noted that although countries like Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda, and Lesotho could face short-term fiscal pressure due to their high dependency on U.S. assistance, the broader macroeconomic impact is expected to be manageable.
Nigeria, in particular, was cited as one of the countries with a stable credit outlook, thanks to ongoing economic and fiscal reforms.
Fitch also highlighted Africa’s increasing geopolitical significance, particularly in the context of rising global demand for critical minerals. With the Democratic Republic of Congo holding vast reserves of cobalt and rare earth minerals, Gamble warned that Africa could become a new theater of strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China.
“The U.S. approach is shifting—now more focused on access to strategic resources than broad-based development support,” he said.
Despite persistent risks—including regional security challenges—Fitch concluded that Africa’s sovereign credit outlook remains largely stable, supported by policy reforms, economic diversification, and the growing role of African-led financial institutions.
