The United States imported $643.1 million worth of goods from Nigeria in the first two months of 2025, just weeks before the implementation of a new 14% tariff regime under the Trump administration, The PUNCH reports.
While concerns have mounted over the potential impact of the tariffs on Nigeria’s trade, oil and mineral exports—Nigeria’s primary exports—are exempt from the new duties, offering a degree of relief.
Sharp Decline in Trade Volume
According to data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), Nigeria’s customs-based exports to the US stood at $286.3 million in February 2025, down 32.4% from $423.6 million recorded in February 2024. Year-to-date, imports dropped from $951.6 million in 2024 to $643.1 million in 2025.
On a Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) basis, imports for February 2025 declined to $298.4 million from $436.3 million in February 2024—a 31.6% drop. Cumulatively, CIF-based imports fell from $979.6 million to $666.3 million over the same period, marking a 32% decrease.
Despite this drop, Nigeria’s trade balance improved notably. Customs-based trade balance rose to a surplus of $187.2 million in February 2025, up from $77.3 million in February 2024—an increase of 142.2%. Year-to-date, Nigeria moved from a trade deficit of $158.8 million in 2024 to a surplus of $44.3 million in 2025.
Crude Oil Dominates Exports
Nigeria exported 5.3 million barrels of crude oil to the US in the first two months of 2025, valued at $413.6 million—accounting for 64.3% of total exports. In February alone, 1.8 million barrels were exported, valued at $142.2 million, down from 3.5 million barrels worth $271.4 million in January. Month-on-month, crude oil export value dropped by 47.6%.
CIF values showed a similar decline—from $278.2 million in January to $146.2 million in February. The cumulative CIF value for crude oil in the two-month period stood at $424.4 million.
Exports Experience Slight Decline
Nigeria’s total exports to the US on a Free Alongside Ship (FAS) basis fell by 5.5% in February 2025 to $473.6 million, down from $501 million in February 2024. Year-to-date exports also dropped by 13.3%, from $792.8 million to $687.4 million.
However, Nigeria experienced a trade surplus in February 2025, reversing the January 2025 trade deficit. The US recorded a $143 million trade deficit in January but rebounded with a $187 million surplus in February—resulting in a cumulative $44 million surplus.
Tariff Concerns and Government Response
Though oil and minerals are excluded from the new tariffs, sectors like agriculture and manufacturing—previously bolstered by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—may be impacted. Analysts warn of increased costs, reduced competitiveness, and a potential decline in demand for Nigerian goods in the US market.
Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has downplayed the tariff’s immediate impact. Speaking at the inaugural Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, Edun said the new tariff poses minimal risk due to the dominance of oil exports.
“Oil and minerals accounted for 92% of Nigeria’s $5.52 trillion exports to the US in 2024. The 14% tariff is relatively moderate compared to Vietnam’s 46% and China’s 34%,” Edun said.
He acknowledged, however, that the economic management team is reassessing the national budget in response to shifting global trade conditions.
Meanwhile, Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, warned that non-oil exports could face significant setbacks due to the new tariffs. Trade experts also noted that the $10 billion annual export volume to the US could be at risk.
10-Year Trade Overview
From 2015 to 2024, Nigeria’s trade with the US totaled ₦31.1 trillion, with ₦16.4 trillion in exports and ₦14.71 trillion in imports, resulting in a trade surplus of ₦1.64 trillion. Notable export peaks included ₦1.82 trillion in 2022, ₦2.61 trillion in 2023, and ₦5.52 trillion in 2024.
