Sadly, I do not see how Tinubu’s presidency or stopping Obi from becoming President will stop the takeover of Lagos by non-Yoruba people.
Let us examine four indices by which people can lay ‘claim’ to the ownership of a city. They are: History, political control, economy and commerce and population.
1.To me, history is what it is – mere history; and as days pass, it’s value becomes eroded in the face ruthless factors of modern measures of success and power.
2. Population: The population of Lagos continues to be diluted daily in favour of non-Yoruba. Even if The Igbo are not yet 50% as they claim, it is indisputable that the combined figure of non-Yoruba dwarfs the Yoruba population. With the unfolding trend, one can say that in another ten years, no one will be able to argue against this fact any longer.
3. Economy and commerce (including property holdings). The Igbo may be making noise about their Lagos stake (which in any case is obvious even to the blind), but The Hausa/Fulani are in the game of buying up Lagos as well. While The Igbo principally use funds from their commercial successes, The Hausa/Fulani deploy funds from their ownership of federal resources. A man once told me he has a Fulani customer who owns 300 houses in Lagos. Think about that?
Where do the Yoruba stand in all of this? They are selling and renting, mainly.
4. Political control. I can say the reason The Yoruba still control Lagos politics is because of Tinubu. Tinubu is able to maintain his control, and consequently Yoruba control, because he rules the streets. This is why The Igbo hate him and The Hausa/Fulani fear him. But think about this. Tinubu will not be there forever. Whenever he is out of the equation, then will The Yoruba begin to see the real owners of Lagos ‘show face.’
In a proper democratic setting, without Tinubu and his variegated muscles, and with a confluence of Igbo and Hausa/Fulani interests, a non-Yoruba governor of Lagos may not be a too distant proposition.
Can Tinubu’s presidency stop the trajectory? How can it?
He won’t stop The Yoruba from selling, neither will he stop The Igbo and Hausa/Fulani from buying. (But it must be said that an Obi presidency will embolden The Igbo more and neutralise Tinubu’s control of the streets).
If, in the past 20 years, a percentage of the much-announced Lagos IGR had been used to empower the indigenes rather than a few families, Lagosians would have been competing favourably on the commercial plane with other ethnicities today.
The simple truth is that The Yoruba political leadership is selfish. While The Igbo and Hausa/Fulani each have a focused tribal agenda about Lagos, there is no such thing among the Yoruba. Even the few in the Yoruba nation movement who made a wake up call were hounded in the interest of someone’s political agenda.
Yoruba nation rallies, which could have been an opportunity to send a message that Lagos is Yorubaland, was disrupted by these same selfish leaders. (Only in Lagos). Imagine a million Yoruba feet on ground!
They called other Yorubaland states poor and said Lagos money will remain in Lagos. Gedegbe l’Eko wa!
But can Lagos alone fend off the advancing onslaught from east and north without support from the rest of Yorubaland?
My conclusion is: if Lagos is taken, do not blame The Igbo or anyone else. The fault is in us.