The upcoming election of a new pope following the death of Pope Francis is expected to be one of the most open and unpredictable in modern history. The decision made in the Sistine Chapel by the College of Cardinals — where they’ll vote in secrecy until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority — could shape the future of the Catholic Church and impact over 1.4 billion Catholics globally.
With around 80% of voting cardinals appointed by Pope Francis, this conclave will reflect a wide global perspective. For the first time, fewer than half of the cardinal-electors are European, making it more likely that the next pope could come from Latin America, Africa, or Asia. Below are some of the most frequently mentioned candidates:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin 🇮🇹 (Italy, age 70)
Role: Vatican Secretary of State
A skilled diplomat and one of the most powerful figures in the Curia, Parolin is viewed as a frontrunner. Seen as pragmatic and globally minded, he has critics for not being dogmatically rigid enough. He’s respected, but his chances may be hurt by the long-standing saying: “He who enters a conclave a pope, leaves as a cardinal.”
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle 🇵🇭 (Philippines, age 67)
Role: Pro-prefect for Evangelization
Nicknamed the “Asian Francis,” Tagle blends doctrinal orthodoxy with pastoral compassion. He has strong support from Asia and the global south, and his call for a more compassionate Church toward marginalized communities could appeal to reformists.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo 🇨🇩 (Democratic Republic of Congo, age 65)
Role: Archbishop of Kinshasa
A strong voice from Africa, Ambongo is deeply respected in the Church. Conservative in doctrine and culturally rooted, he advocates for peace amid violence and religious tension in the DRC. However, his strong cultural stances could divide opinions.
Cardinal Peter Turkson 🇬🇭 (Ghana, age 76)
Role: Former Prefect of the Dicastery for Integral Human Development
A long-standing papal contender with global experience, Turkson is both a respected intellectual and an advocate for social justice. While conservative on some issues, he opposes criminalizing homosexuality — a nuanced position that could gain support across factions.
Cardinal Peter Erdo 🇭🇺 (Hungary, age 72)
Role: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
A European compromise candidate, Erdo is known for his legal acumen and leadership in Europe’s Church affairs. A conservative voice, he’s favored by some who want a return to stronger doctrinal clarity.
Cardinal Angelo Scola 🇮🇹 (Italy, age 83)
Note: Too old to vote, but technically still eligible to be elected.
A major contender in 2013, Scola’s name has re-emerged after Pope Francis praised his recent book. However, his age and association with past conclaves may hinder his chances.
Cardinal Reinhard Marx 🇩🇪 (Germany, age 71)
Role: Archbishop of Munich and Freising
A key reform voice in Francis’s papacy, Marx is known for progressive views on LGBTQ+ issues and Church accountability. He previously offered to resign over clerical abuse cases — a move seen as courageous by some, controversial by others.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet 🇨🇦 (Canada, age 80)
Note: Also ineligible to vote due to age.
Twice a papal contender, Ouellet is a conservative with a global Church-building background. His recent retirement from high Vatican office likely reduces his influence this time.
Cardinal Robert Prevost 🇺🇸 (USA, age 69)
Role: Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops
Seen as a modern reformer with Latin American ties, Prevost brings both missionary and administrative experience. He could appeal to progressives, though his U.S. nationality and past controversies in Peru could be hurdles.
Cardinal Robert Sarah 🇬🇳 (Guinea, age 79)
Role: Former head of liturgy
A favorite among traditionalists, Sarah has been a consistent critic of reformist movements. While beloved by conservatives, his age and polarizing stances could work against him.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa 🇮🇹 (Italy, age 60)
Role: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
Deeply rooted in Middle Eastern affairs, Pizzaballa has earned praise for his balanced leadership amid conflict. However, his relative youth and closeness to Francis may make him less appealing to cardinals seeking change.
Cardinal Michael Czerny 🇨🇦 (Canada, age 78)
Role: Head of Vatican’s human development office
A Jesuit and strong social justice advocate, Czerny is popular among progressives. However, given that Pope Francis was also a Jesuit, electing another from the same order back-to-back may be unlikely.
Conclusion:
This conclave could mark a major shift for the Catholic Church. Whether cardinals choose a continuation of Francis’s reformist agenda or opt for a more traditional leader, one thing is clear — the next pope could come from almost anywhere in the world, reflecting the Church’s increasingly global nature.
