In 2024, the Nigerian military made significant progress against banditry, eliminating over 15 notorious kingpins, including Halilu Sububu, Sani Dangote, Boderi Isyaku, and others. Despite these victories, the war on banditry remains a daunting task, resembling the prolonged insurgency in the North-East.
Major Gains: Eliminating Key Bandit Leaders
The death of Halilu Sububu marked a turning point. Sububu, a notorious bandit leader and arms supplier, was deeply connected to Sahelian jihadists and wielded influence over 46 of the 80 bandit camps in the North-West. His activities extended beyond banditry, encompassing illegal gold mining and gunrunning across Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Libya.
Military operations supported by local vigilantes led to his death in September, causing significant disruption within the banditry networks. Analysts highlight his elimination as a landmark achievement, demoralizing his followers and weakening their operational strength.
Fallout and Leadership Crisis
Sububu’s death triggered infighting among his lieutenants, Najaja and Dullu, as they vied for control. However, neither possesses his connections or leadership capabilities. Shehu Rekep, another influential figure, has reportedly abandoned banditry and fled the country, leaving a leadership vacuum that further destabilizes the network.
Rise of IED Attacks: A Growing Concern
With disrupted supply chains and reduced access to arms, some bandit groups, particularly those aligned with Dogo Gide, have resorted to using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). This tactic, while uncommon in the North-West, poses new challenges for the military.
IED attacks, attributed to jihadist influences, highlight a worrying trend of guerrilla warfare tactics spilling over from the North-East. The late Ali Kawaje and his associates, who previously collaborated with jihadists during the 2022 Abuja-Kaduna train attack, are believed to have introduced IED-making to the region.
Strategic Implications for the Military
Observers emphasize the urgent need for the military to identify and neutralize IED supply chains and experts within bandit camps. Left unchecked, this shift could escalate violence and complicate counterinsurgency efforts.
Broader Context: A Complex Fight
While military offensives, peace deals, and inter-bandit rivalries have disrupted operations in areas like Zamfara and Kaduna, the persistence of banditry reflects deeper structural issues. Analysts warn that the conflict’s evolving dynamics require adaptive strategies to address not just the symptoms but the root causes of insecurity in the region.
Outlook
As 2025 approaches, the military faces the dual challenge of consolidating its gains and adapting to new threats. The fight against banditry, like the battle against insurgency, underscores the complexity of Nigeria’s security landscape and the necessity for sustained, multifaceted interventions.
