Arsenal and Manchester City will renew their rivalry on Sunday, August 16, when the Premier League champions face the FA Cup winners in the 2026 FA Community Shield at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium.
While both clubs will be determined to begin the new campaign with silverware, history offers an intriguing twist: losing the Community Shield has actually been a better omen for winning the Premier League than lifting the trophy.
Since the Premier League era began, 10 teams that lost the Community Shield have gone on to win the league in the same season, compared with only eight teams that won the Shield before eventually becoming Premier League champions.
The recent trend is even more striking. Four of the last seven Community Shield losers went on to win the Premier League — Liverpool in 2019-20 and Manchester City in 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Conversely, only eight Community Shield winners in the Premier League era have completed the league double, with Manchester City’s 2018-19 campaign the most recent example.
That makes Sunday’s contest particularly intriguing. Arsenal, who ended a 22-year wait for the Premier League title last season, could start their defence with a trophy, while City will look to make an immediate statement under new manager Enzo Maresca following Pep Guardiola’s departure.
So, if history is anything to go by, **the team lifting the Community Shield on Sunday may not be the one celebrating the biggest prize nine months later.**
