The report examines the factors behind Ademola Adeleke’s victory in the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election, where he defeated APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji by 66,252 votes, securing 511,067 votes to Oyebamiji’s 444,815.
Key factors behind Adeleke’s victory
- Strong grassroots connection: Adeleke’s campaign leaned heavily on his personal popularity and established grassroots network, particularly in his Ede stronghold.
- The “dancing governor” image: What opponents frequently mocked as excessive dancing became part of Adeleke’s distinctive public identity and helped reinforce his accessibility and connection with ordinary voters.
- Davido’s mobilisation: Afrobeats star Davido, Adeleke’s nephew, played a prominent role in youth mobilisation, rallies and social-media campaigning.
- APC’s federal advantage failed to translate into votes: Despite the APC controlling the Federal Government and President Bola Tinubu openly urging a peaceful and credible election, Adeleke retained enough local support to overcome the party’s perceived federal political strength.
- Performance and incumbency: Adeleke campaigned on continuity, highlighting infrastructure, education and other projects undertaken during his first term.
- Traditional and local support: Some influential traditional rulers, including the Ataoja of Osogbo and the Timi of Ede, publicly backed Adeleke.
- A divided opposition: Internal political realignments and defections within Osun’s political landscape affected the APC’s ability to consolidate its expected advantage.
Ultimately, the result showed that federal political power did not automatically translate into electoral dominance in Osun. Adeleke’s combination of incumbency, grassroots mobilisation, personal popularity and strong performance in key LGAs proved decisive.
