Even though political parties are yet to conduct their primaries, early movements across party lines are already shaping the direction of the next elections. These shifts suggest that current alignments—not last-minute surprises—may ultimately determine the outcome in the three senatorial districts.
There are clear signs that the voting pattern may differ from 2023, when many voters stuck to traditional party loyalties. In that election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) retained the governorship after Nasir El-Rufai completed his eight-year tenure. However, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) swept all three senatorial seats, significantly changing the political balance in the state.
The PDP’s victory saw Lawal Adamu Usman emerge in Kaduna Central, Khalid Soba in Kaduna North, and Sunday Marshall Katung in Kaduna South—marking a rare moment of complete opposition dominance in the Senate from the state.
Since then, the political landscape has shifted. Defections and strategic repositioning have weakened the PDP’s hold. Two of its senators—Katung and Usman—have left the party, leaving Soba as the only PDP senator from Kaduna State.
Katung has since joined the APC, citing the need to align with the ruling party for the benefit of his constituents, while Usman moved to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is gradually positioning itself as an alternative political force. Both lawmakers blamed internal crises within the PDP for their decisions.
Although the elections are still some time away, analysts believe the APC is gaining the upper hand, especially with the opposition struggling to mobilise effectively. Apart from Soba and Usman, few opposition figures have shown strong momentum ahead of the race.
In contrast, the APC is witnessing increased interest, with several aspirants already jostling for tickets across the three districts.
In Kaduna North, the race is shaping up to be a fierce contest between former Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero and former Senator Suleiman Uthman Hunkuyi. Both are seasoned politicians with strong grassroots connections.
Yero’s political journey—from finance commissioner to governor—combined with his recent alignment with the APC under Uba Sani, has strengthened his position. Hunkuyi, known for his political resilience and grassroots appeal, has also re-emerged as a strong contender following his return to the APC.
In Kaduna Central, the contest is expected to be intense, with several notable figures in the race. Shehu Sani remains influential due to his activism and public engagement, as well as his relationship with Governor Uba Sani.
Other contenders include Yerima Shettima, known for his grassroots mobilisation, and Yusuf Zailani, who brings legislative experience and influence in key areas.
The eventual APC candidate is expected to face a strong challenge from Lawal Usman, now representing the ADC, who is likely to leverage his experience and visibility.
In Kaduna South, the political tide appears to be shifting from a PDP stronghold to an APC-leaning zone. This change became more evident after Katung’s defection to the ruling party.
With no major opposition challenger emerging, the main contest is within the APC. Aspirants include Katung himself, former Senator Danjuma La’ah, Amos Gwamna Magaji, Joseph Ciroma, and Michael Ayuba Auta.
Despite the competition, Katung’s incumbency and track record in areas like education, healthcare, and infrastructure give him a clear advantage heading into both the primaries and the general election.
As 2027 approaches, Kaduna State is shaping up to be a key political battleground. While the APC currently appears to be in a stronger position due to defections and internal consolidation, the unpredictable nature of Nigerian politics means the race is far from settled.
