Energy experts have raised concerns over the United Arab Emirates’ planned withdrawal from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), warning that the move could weaken the cartel’s influence on global oil prices and negatively affect Nigeria’s oil revenue.
The UAE is expected to officially leave OPEC on May 1, 2026, removing about 1.2 billion barrels of annual crude production from the group’s coordinated supply arrangement in what analysts describe as a major shift in the global oil market.
Although some observers believe the development could create room for Nigeria to increase its market share, industry experts argue that the consequences may instead lead to lower oil prices and greater uncertainty in the energy sector.
Available industry data showed that the UAE produced an average of 3.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, representing around 12 per cent of OPEC’s total production.
Speaking on the development, petroleum economist and Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, said the situation reflects growing tensions within OPEC over production limits and market control.
According to him, countries that have invested heavily in expanding production capacity may increasingly prioritise selling more oil over complying with production quotas designed to stabilise prices.
He warned that Nigeria faces serious risks if OPEC’s ability to regulate prices weakens, especially because the country is already struggling with production challenges, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and high operational costs.
Iledare stressed that Nigeria must prepare for a future where OPEC may no longer provide strong protection against falling oil prices by improving production efficiency, cutting costs, and diversifying the economy through gas and other sectors.
Also reacting, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, said the UAE’s exit could become more of a disadvantage than an opportunity for Nigeria.
He explained that OPEC’s main role is to control oil supply in order to maintain stable and profitable prices. According to him, the withdrawal of a major producer like the UAE could reduce the organisation’s ability to influence the market.
Yusuf added that even if Nigeria receives a higher production quota, falling crude prices could erase any expected gains.
He further warned that Nigeria could face severe economic pressure if oil prices decline while the country continues to struggle with low production output.
On the international scene, Head of Energy Research at MST Financial, Saul Kavonic, described the UAE’s exit as a possible sign of weakening unity within OPEC+, raising concerns about the future strength of the alliance.
The UAE government stated that the decision followed a review of its long-term energy strategy and increasing investments in domestic production capacity.
Officials from the country’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure said the move was aimed at giving the UAE greater flexibility in responding to global market conditions while maintaining responsible participation in the energy market.
The development also comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a major global oil shipping route.
For Nigeria, experts say the bigger issue remains the country’s inability to consistently meet production targets due to long-standing operational and security challenges in the oil sector.
