Oyo 2027: Adelabu, Folarin, Alli and the Early Battle for APC’s Ticket
As momentum quietly builds ahead of the 2027 governorship race in Oyo State, three prominent figures within the All Progressives Congress are already shaping internal conversations: Adebayo Adelabu, Teslim Folarin, and Sarafadeen Alli.
Each brings a different strength to the table—technocratic experience, legislative influence, and traditional political alignment—but their past performances tell very different stories about their chances.
Adelabu: Strong Numbers, Broad Appeal
Adelabu, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and APC’s 2019 governorship candidate, remains one of the most formidable names in the conversation. Backed at the time by then-President Muhammadu Buhari, he secured 357,982 votes, finishing second in a tightly contested race.
That outing demonstrated his ability to attract support across different parts of the state. Although his 2023 bid under the Accord Party saw his votes drop significantly to 38,357, many analysts attribute that decline to the weakness of the platform rather than a loss of personal influence.
Taken together, his record suggests a candidate whose strength is amplified by party structure but still rooted in a recognisable statewide presence.
Folarin: Experience Without Breakthrough
For Teslim Folarin, experience is not in short supply. A former Senate Leader, he has long been a key political player in Oyo Central. However, his electoral journey has been mixed.
In 2015, under the Peoples Democratic Party and with the backing of then-President Goodluck Jonathan, he secured just over 70,000 votes, finishing third. By 2023, running on the APC platform, he improved significantly to 256,685 votes—but still fell short of victory.
While his numbers show growth, they also suggest a ceiling he has yet to break, even with stronger party backing.
Alli: The Wildcard
Sarafadeen Alli enters the race from a different angle. Unlike the others, he has not contested for governor before. His rise in politics has been closely linked to the influence of Rashidi Ladoja, under whom he once served as Secretary to the State Government.
Though his senatorial victory proves he can win elections, it does not yet answer the bigger question: can he mobilise support across the entire state in a high-stakes gubernatorial contest?
For now, his profile remains promising but largely untested at that level.
Reading the Numbers
A comparison of past results offers some clarity. Adelabu’s 2019 performance stands out as the highest among the trio, surpassing Folarin’s best outing by over 100,000 votes. Both men, however, show clear dependence on party structure.
Alli, on the other hand, lacks comparable statewide data, making him more of an unknown quantity.
The Real Decision for APC
For the APC, the challenge goes beyond picking a popular name. It is a strategic choice between proven electability and internal political balancing.
Adelabu offers strong numbers and demonstrated reach. Folarin brings experience and consistency, though without a decisive breakthrough. Alli represents potential, but with limited evidence at the highest level.
In the end, winning Oyo in 2027 will require more than pedigree or endorsements. It will demand a candidate who can convert party strength into real votes across all zones of the state—a test that, so far, only one of the contenders has come close to passing.
