UK Study Visa Approvals Hit Five-Year Low as Refusals Surge, Nigeria Records Sharp Rise in Rejection Rate
New figures released by the UK Home Office on May 21 show a significant slowdown in international student migration, with study visa approvals falling to their lowest first-quarter level since 2020.
A total of 35,625 sponsored study-related visas were granted between January and March 2026, representing a nearly one-third drop compared to the same period in 2025 and a 60 per cent decline from the 2023 peak.
The data also revealed a broad-based downturn, with applications falling across all of the UK’s top 10 student source countries.
Over the 12 months ending March 2026, the UK issued 409,954 study visas, a 3 per cent decrease year-on-year and 34 per cent below the levels recorded in March 2023.
Refusals rise sharply as applications decline
While overall demand has weakened, visa rejections have increased significantly. The Home Office recorded 5,499 refusals in the first quarter of 2026, a 56 per cent rise compared with the same period last year.
This pushed the refusal rate to about 13 per cent of all applications — double the 2025 figure and the highest level recorded since 2015.
Analysts say the spike is partly driven by falling application volumes, which makes refusals more pronounced in percentage terms, alongside stricter compliance checks.
Nigeria among countries most affected
The report showed uneven impacts across countries. While refusal rates for applicants from China and the United States remained at just 1 per cent, and Nepal and India recorded 4 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, some countries faced much higher rejection levels.
Nigerian applicants saw refusal rates jump to 21 per cent, while Pakistan recorded the highest at 39 per cent. Pakistan and Sri Lanka also experienced tripled rejection rates within the period.
Policy changes and tighter migration rules
The decline comes amid changes to the UK’s graduate visa route introduced in January 2026. Under the new policy, international graduates can now remain in the UK for 18 months after completing their studies, down from the previous two-year allowance.
The policy shift, combined with stricter documentation and compliance requirements, has been linked to delays in processing times, with applicants from Pakistan reportedly among the most affected.
Impact on universities and postgraduate study
Separate figures show a steep drop in postgraduate student visas. Entry clearance visas for master’s students fell to 21,700 in Q1 2026, down from 33,300 a year earlier — a 35 per cent decline.
The downturn is expected to hit UK universities, many of which rely heavily on international students as a key source of revenue, with the sector now facing its weakest intake in six years.
