ATIKU’S YARI CLAIM COLLAPSES: NO EVIDENCE OF TINUBU’S 2031 ANOINTMENT OR SHETTIMA REVOLT
By Gloria Fraser, MFR
Headlinenews.News Special Report
There is a fundamental difference between a political party declaring its ambition to remain in government and a President secretly selecting his successor. The latest Atiku 2027 narrative attempts to erase that distinction by transforming Senator Abdul’Aziz Yari’s declaration that the APC intends to retain power beyond 2031 into an alleged plan by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to install Yari as Nigeria’s next President.
No evidence presented establishes such an arrangement.
The allegation then travels considerably further. From an unproven claim that Tinubu has anointed Yari, the publication constructs a “major crack” in the Presidency and suggests Vice-President Kashim Shettima may work against the APC in the 2027 presidential election. Yet no statement from Shettima threatening rebellion is produced, no evidence of his withdrawal from the Tinubu ticket is presented, and no credible proof of the supposed presidential rupture accompanies the claim.
What emerges is a remarkable chain of political inference: Yari predicts continued APC government after 2031; therefore Tinubu has secretly chosen Yari; therefore Shettima is aggrieved; therefore Shettima may sabotage APC in 2027.
Each proposition depends upon the previous one being true. The evidence presently establishes only the first.
THE CLAIM THAT OUTRUNS THE EVIDENCE
Yari, as Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, has publicly expressed confidence that President Tinubu will win re-election and that the APC will continue governing beyond 2031.
That is partisan confidence, not presidential anointment.
Yari did not announce himself as Tinubu’s chosen successor. Tinubu has not announced Yari as his preferred candidate for 2031. APC has not conducted a 2031 presidential primary. Nigeria has not even conducted the 2027 presidential election.
To convert an aspiration by a governing party to remain in office into evidence that its President has already selected the individual who will succeed him four years later requires considerably more than political speculation.
Indeed, every serious political party contests elections with the intention of remaining in government. When PDP governed Nigeria, it sought continuity. APC does the same today. ADC, should it win power, would presumably not enter government planning its own defeat at the next election.
There is nothing conspiratorial about a political party intending to retain power.
The conspiracy begins only when evidence establishes a secret arrangement. None has been produced here.
WHERE IS THE TINUBU-SHETTIMA “CRACK”?
The attempt to introduce Vice-President Shettima into the allegation is even more speculative.
Yari’s present assignment is not to campaign for himself in 2031. It is to help secure the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima in 2027.
That political reality sits awkwardly beside claims that Yari’s appointment demonstrates an emerging war between Tinubu and Shettima.
President Tinubu has also continued publicly to express confidence in his Vice-President. On Shettima’s 60th birthday, Tinubu described him as his “brother and partner,” a “trusted ally” and “valued colleague,” praising his loyalty, diligence and commitment to national unity.
Political relationships can change, but journalism cannot report a future possibility as a present fact merely because change is theoretically possible.
Where, therefore, is the evidence that Shettima intends to work against APC? Where is his statement? Where is the demonstrated political rupture? Where is the rebellion supposedly “shaking” the Presidency?
None appears in the case presented.
Instead, an alleged reaction from Shettima to an alleged Tinubu plan becomes evidence of an alleged presidential crisis.
Three allegations do not become one fact merely because they are placed in the same headline.
YARI: SEPARATING DOCUMENTED HISTORY FROM POLITICAL ALLEGATION
Yari’s public record is legitimately open to examination. He served as Governor of Zamfara State between 2011 and 2019, and matters involving assets and funds linked to him have previously reached Nigerian courts.
In January 2021, a Federal High Court ordered the final forfeiture of funds linked to Yari and associated companies after legitimate sources for the funds were not established to the satisfaction of the court.
In 2022, another Federal High Court granted an interim forfeiture order relating to ten properties linked to him while the ICPC pursued its investigation.
Those are matters of public record. They need neither concealment nor political embellishment.
But the description of Yari as an “alleged Boko Haram sponsor” belongs to an entirely different category of accusation. Terrorism financing is among the gravest allegations that can be made against a Nigerian public figure. Political actors have recently made allegations connecting Yari to terrorism financing, illegal mining and banditry, but the Atiku publication presents no criminal conviction establishing that Yari sponsored Boko Haram.
An allegation is not upgraded into a judicial finding merely by repetition.
The principle should apply equally to government and opposition politicians.
Where allegations exist, they should be described accurately as allegations. Where convictions exist, they may properly be reported as convictions. Political journalism loses credibility when it collapses the distinction.
The claim that Northern Nigeria is consequently turning decisively against Tinubu suffers from a similar problem of evidence.
Political defections in Jigawa and other states may be significant, just as defections towards APC may be significant. But neither establishes the collective electoral decision of Northern Nigeria.
The North is not a single polling unit. It comprises diverse states, communities, interests, parties and millions of voters who will make their decisions on security, the economy, personalities, local political structures and numerous other considerations.
An unnamed “Northern Political Observer” cannot pronounce their collective verdict in advance.
THE NATIONAL PATRIOTS VERDICT
The National Patriots rejects the attempt to manufacture a Tinubu-Shettima crisis from an unsubstantiated political theory. Senator Yari’s declaration that APC intends to remain in government beyond 2031 is evidence of his party’s ambition, not evidence that President Tinubu has secretly selected him as successor.
Equally, no credible evidence presented establishes that Vice-President Shettima intends to sabotage the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in 2027.
Atiku is entitled to challenge Tinubu on the economy, security, governance, poverty, employment and the cost of living. These are serious issues upon which every incumbent government should be held accountable. But an opposition movement confident of its case should not need to manufacture a presidential succession drama four years before the supposed succession would occur.
Nigeria has not conducted the 2027 presidential election. Tinubu has not commenced a second term.
APC has not conducted a 2031 presidential primary.
Yari has not been declared its 2031 candidate, and Tinubu has not announced him as his preferred successor.
Nevertheless, the Atiku narrative has already identified the candidate, discovered the secret agreement, generated Northern outrage and predicted Shettima’s rebellion.
That is not evidence-led political analysis. It is speculation attempting to authenticate itself through repetition.
The burden of proof therefore rests squarely upon those making these extraordinary claims.
If evidence exists that Tinubu has secretly anointed Yari for 2031, produce it. If evidence exists that Shettima intends to work against his own ticket in 2027, produce it.
Political assertions do not acquire evidential value simply because they are presented under the banner of “breaking news.”
The distinction at the centre of this controversy is elementary but decisive: Yari saying APC intends to govern beyond 2031 is not the same thing as Tinubu saying Yari will govern from 2031.
Until credible evidence establishes otherwise, there is no Tinubu-Yari succession arrangement to defend and no demonstrated Shettima revolt to explain.
A party’s ambition is not a presidential anointment.
A campaign appointment is not a succession agreement. And political speculation, however sensationally packaged, cannot manufacture a crack in the Presidency that the evidence has yet to establish.
Headlinenews.news Special Investigative Report
