Both ambitions are expected to face strong competition from opposition parties, including the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Mohammed’s recent decision to join the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), following months of speculation about his political future, has also changed the political landscape in the state.
The move is expected to provide a platform for his political ambitions while creating an opportunity for his preferred candidate to succeed him as governor.
However, Bauchi’s political history presents considerable challenges for governors seeking to determine who succeeds them. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, no sitting governor in the state has successfully handed over power to his preferred candidate.
Former Governor Adamu Mu’azu, who governed between 1999 and 2007, was succeeded by Isa Yuguda, who also failed to install his preferred successor, Mohammed Abubakar, after losing the 2019 election to Bala Mohammed.
Previous attempts by former governors to secure Senate seats have also produced unsuccessful outcomes. Mu’azu lost the Bauchi South senatorial election in 2007 to Mohammed, while Yuguda was defeated by Ali Wakili in 2015.
A lecturer at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Abdullahi Yelwa, said Mohammed would face significant obstacles in achieving both political objectives, citing the state’s electoral history.
He questioned whether Yakubu Adamu had enough personal political influence to secure victory independently, arguing that the APM’s strength largely depends on the governor’s political structure.
Yelwa also noted that dissatisfaction over the rising cost of living, compensation for properties affected by road construction and unmet expectations among some residents could affect the ruling camp’s chances.
On the senatorial contest, Mohammed’s prospects will depend on his ability to secure support across the seven local government areas that make up Bauchi South: Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa and Toro.
The APC has maintained a strong presence in the district, winning the senatorial seat in both the 2019 and 2023 elections.
However, the political situation has changed following the defection of Senator Shehu Buba Umar to the PRP, where he is now pursuing a governorship ambition. His departure, alongside other prominent party members, has also created challenges for the APC in the state.
Meanwhile, former Bauchi Governor Mohammed Abubakar has emerged as the APC’s governorship candidate for 2027, although questions remain about his ability to attract sufficient grassroots support.
The ADC is also positioning itself for the election, with Aliyu Halliru Jika emerging as its governorship candidate. The party could benefit from the political influence of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, particularly in the North-East.
Yelwa believes the election could develop into a competitive contest involving four major political parties, with economic hardship and voters’ dissatisfaction potentially influencing the outcome.
He maintained that it was too early to determine which political camp would emerge victorious, noting that the different parties possess varying levels of political support and organisational strength.
