Headlinenews.news report that Boko Haram’s JAS faction (Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad) launched significant attacks against the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in October 2023, resulting in ISWAP fighters evacuating many of their island territories in the Lake Chad area, as reported by ongoing research from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Despite previous setbacks, including territorial losses and the death of its leader Abubakar Shekau, JAS managed to seize territories long held by ISWAP, with estimates suggesting they now control up to 40% of the islands previously under ISWAP’s control. This success can be attributed in part to an alliance with former ISWAP commander Mikhail Usman, also known as Kaila, who defected to JAS in early 2023 along with several commanders and fighters, citing grievances including perceived marginalization of the Buduma ethnic group within ISWAP leadership and increased taxation on civilians. Kaila’s knowledge of ISWAP’s vulnerabilities, particularly its dependence on Buduma fighters for water-based battles, played a crucial role in JAS’ October offensive.
Following the split of Boko Haram into two factions in 2016, the Islamic State recognized ISWAP as an affiliate under the leadership of Abu Musab al-Barnawi. Despite some previous successes against ISWAP, JAS’ capture of key territories represents a significant achievement. While ISWAP is preparing for counter-offensives to reclaim lost ground, the Islamic State has sought to reconcile Kaila with ISWAP, fearing further weakening of ISWAP’s position and potential reputational damage. This development underscores the complex dynamics within and between terrorist organizations in the region, highlighting the importance of ongoing military pressure and cross-border intelligence sharing to counter their activities and prevent further destabilization.
