Iran’s recent attacks on commercial vessels have drawn attention as the United States and Oman increase the use of a new southern shipping corridor along Oman’s coastline, a route designed to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and keep ships farther from Iranian waters.
Security analysts and former U.S. military officials believe the timing of the attacks reflects Iran’s determination to maintain its strategic influence over one of the world’s most important maritime routes.
Retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery said the alternative corridor reduces Iran’s ability to exert control over commercial shipping, suggesting the attacks were intended to discourage its growing use.
For decades, Iran has leveraged its position along the Strait of Hormuz to influence global energy and shipping markets. However, that advantage is gradually being challenged as Gulf nations invest in pipelines and export routes that bypass the strait, while the United States and Oman expand safer maritime alternatives.
Maritime intelligence data indicates that nearly half of inbound commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already using the southern corridor.
Following attacks on vessels operating along the route, the United States carried out strikes on Iranian military targets linked to maritime operations. Iran later responded with attacks on U.S. facilities and regional allies before President Donald Trump announced that both sides had agreed to suspend hostilities and resume negotiations in Doha.
Iran, however, has denied reports that its officials would participate in talks with U.S. representatives in Qatar.
Former commander of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, said Iran’s objective is not necessarily to shut down shipping but to make commercial operations more expensive by increasing security risks and insurance costs.
According to him, maintaining high insurance premiums could discourage shipping companies from using the route while allowing Iran to reinforce its influence over maritime traffic and test Washington’s response.
Attention has now shifted to negotiations over the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Under a memorandum of understanding reached after the ceasefire, Iran, Oman and Gulf coastal states are expected to discuss future maritime administration while allowing commercial vessels to pass toll-free for a 60-day period.
Although President Donald Trump has publicly insisted that no tolls will be imposed after the temporary arrangement expires, the agreement itself does not explicitly guarantee that outcome.
Iranian media linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have portrayed amendments to the agreement, including provisions relating to the administration of the strait, as diplomatic gains for Tehran.
Saudi Arabia has rejected proposals to alter the current system governing the waterway, with Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arguing there is no justification for changing existing arrangements because of the recent conflict.
Analysts say the negotiations reflect broader competition over regional influence, with Iran seeking a stronger role in Gulf security while some Gulf states continue to strengthen independent defence capabilities and diversify trade routes.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expanded oil export infrastructure outside the Strait of Hormuz, including pipelines to the Red Sea and export terminals in Fujairah, reducing dependence on the strategic waterway.
Experts believe that as alternative routes continue to grow, Iran’s long-standing ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a source of geopolitical leverage could gradually weaken, even though it remains one of the world’s most important energy transit corridors.
