For the sake of modesty and not to play God, as only Him enthrones and dethrones. I am putting forth the following permutations why the incumbent governor may not return, ordinarily, I could have said will not return but only God decides ultimately.
However, certain facts are actually standing against his victory on the 11th March poll for governorship and house of assembly candidates. The facts are stated thus;
ATIKU EFFECTS: In 2019, Turakin Adamawa, Alh Atiku Abubakr was the presidential candidate of PDP and he won his election in Oyo State convincingly, this was largely due to commitment of party members and financial support by the presidential candidate which in all honesty trickled down to the polling units. The outcome of the presidential and national assembly elections was the reference point and energizer that spurred PDP at the State level to vigorously campaigned for GSM and the rest is history.
Therefore, a little wonder to hear that the same person on whose influence you largely rode to stardom will not and did not get your support for his presidential bid in 2023. Political pundits will not find it difficult to infer that such a stance by His Excellency will actually have grave consequences.
2019 COALITION: Several parties and personalities came together in 2019 to work for the victory of the PDP governorship candidate but today many of such personalities are biting their fingers in regret of the support given then, not to talk of those who remain in the party but their attention and affection elsewhere.
LOSERS OF PRESIDENTIAL AND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: The Governorship election is definitely going to be a payback time for the incumbent by the losers of 25th February elections. The big wigs in the party who have more or equal influence with the incumbent will work assiduously to ensure his Excellency is served the same meal of defeat not to talk of candidates in that election who laboured in vain and pin the loss on G5 membership of the Governor.
PROTEST VOTE OF 2019: In 2019, there was a protest vote by APC members and the people of the State, and the major beneficiaries were the PDP and the incumbent governor. There is no protest vote again and if there would be any, definitely it is going to be the incumbent.
ABYSSMAL PERFORMANCE OF HIS EXCELLENCY: Those who have the guts to say the truth will definitely lament the poor performance in the education, health, and security sector of the State not to talk of execution of white elephant projects, LIGHT UP OYO, and modern-day garages are examples that quickly come to mind.
OUTCOME OF 25TH FEBRUARY ELECTION: For PDP to have got a poor outing in the last election, a good or better outing in the forthcoming election is definitely going to be a more than herculean task because the winners of that election will not be watching season film.
Conclusively, with all the aforementioned facts above, the only candidate who is close to coasting home victory is the APC candidate in person of OLOYE TESLIM KOLAWOLE FOLARIN.
Nevertheless, this write-up is a project of human conjecture it is far from being a prophecy, therefore guber candidates are expected to continue with decorum, in their campaign assignments and eschew every form of violence before, during, and after the elections on Saturday.