By Gloria Fraser, MFR
In every democracy, ambition is legitimate. What must always be tested, however, is whether that ambition is supported by electoral reality. That is why the National Patriots warmly welcomes the Independent National Electoral Commission’s proposal to conduct a mock presidential election ahead of the 2027 general election. If transparently implemented, it could become one of the most innovative confidence-building measures in Nigeria’s electoral history.
Such an exercise would provide aspirants with a practical indication of the depth of their national appeal, identify operational gaps for INEC and, perhaps most importantly, discourage exaggerated claims that are inconsistent with electoral realities.
It is against this background that recent reports of Peter Obi again claiming victory in the 2023 presidential election deserve careful scrutiny.
The official result declared by INEC placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu first, Atiku Abubakar second and Peter Obi third. Those results were challenged before the Presidential Election Petition Court and subsequently before the Supreme Court. Both courts affirmed the declared outcome. Whatever personal opinions may exist, those remain the only legally recognised results of the 2023 presidential election.
Professor Mohammed Adamu of the University of Maiduguri reportedly posed a thought-provoking question: “If Peter Obi insists he came first, is he also suggesting that Atiku Abubakar, who officially finished second, was wrongly declared ahead of him?” It is a question that highlights the need for logical consistency whenever claims are made that differ from the officially declared results.
Equally significant is Nigeria’s constitutional requirement for electing a President. Winning the presidency is not simply about enthusiasm in a few states. It requires both the highest lawful votes and the constitutionally prescribed nationwide spread. The official results show that Peter Obi did not satisfy that constitutional threshold.
His strongest electoral performance was geographically concentrated, particularly in the South-East, with significant support in a limited number of other states. While this demonstrated the emergence of a formidable political movement, it did not translate into the broad national coalition required to secure the presidency under Nigeria’s constitutional framework.
Like every presidential aspirant, Peter Obi remains free to contest future elections. However, any realistic presidential bid will require substantially broader support across the federation than was achieved in 2023. National elections are won by building bridges across Nigeria’s diverse regions, ethnic groups and political constituencies.
The 2023 election also generated allegations of irregularities from different political parties in various parts of the country. APC supporters questioned unusually high Labour Party vote margins in some areas, while Labour Party supporters challenged aspects of the electoral process elsewhere. Those competing allegations formed part of post-election litigation. However, the courts did not find sufficient legal grounds to overturn the final presidential result.
Rather than continually relitigating the past, political leaders should focus on expanding their national appeal and presenting practical solutions to Nigeria’s challenges. Elections should be won at the ballot box, tested in the courts where necessary, and ultimately respected in accordance with the Constitution and the rule of law.
The National Patriots therefore commends INEC for proposing a mock presidential election. Such an initiative would encourage evidence-based political engagement, help aspirants measure their true nationwide acceptance and strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s democracy.
Leadership begins with accepting reality. Great democracies are strengthened when political aspirations are guided by facts, constitutional requirements and the freely expressed will of the electorate—not by perpetual claims that have not displaced the officially declared and judicially affirmed outcome. That is the path to a more mature democracy and a more united Nigeria.
The National Patriots urges all political leaders and their supporters to place facts above emotions and constitutional democracy above personal conviction. Elections are ultimately determined by lawful votes, constitutional requirements and judicial processes. As Nigeria prepares for another electoral cycle, aspirants should focus on building genuine nationwide acceptance, presenting credible solutions and strengthening democratic institutions. Political maturity is demonstrated not by perpetual disputes over past elections, but by preparing responsibly to earn the confidence of Nigerians in future contests.
Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
President, The National Patriots.
Special Adviser to Former President Goodluck Jonathan.
