HeadlineNews.News Special Report
“The Numbers Don’t Lie: Why Atiku Abubakar Remains No Match for Tinubu in 2027”
April 17, 2025 | Abuja
By the Editorial Desk
As the political landscape begins to warm ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, some opposition circles have floated the idea of a political resurgence for Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s former Vice President and five-time presidential contender. But when the dust of sentiment settles and cold electoral history is considered, one fact stands clear: Atiku Abubakar has never demonstrated the political strength or grassroots depth necessary to unseat an incumbent like President Bola Ahmed Tinubu—especially in a post-2023 Nigeria.
A Pattern of Electoral Defeats: The Data Speaks
Despite decades in the political arena, Atiku’s track record reveals a consistent failure to convert ambition into victory—both within party primaries and in general elections:
1993 Presidential Race: Atiku vied for the presidency under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), but lost at the convention to MKO Abiola. Meanwhile, a younger Bola Tinubu secured the Lagos West senatorial seat under the same party, beginning his political trajectory with a landslide victory.
2007 Presidential Election: Running under the Action Congress (AC), Atiku secured just 2.6 million votes nationwide, placing third. Ironically, his own state—Adamawa—rejected him, despite being Vice President and having an AC governor in office. Tinubu, who led Atiku’s campaign in the Southwest, delivered Lagos State with 599,300 votes, contributing nearly 70% of Atiku’s entire votes from the Southwest zone.
2014 APC Presidential Primaries: Atiku contested against Muhammadu Buhari and others. Despite heavy spending and mobilization, he finished third, behind Buhari and Kwankwaso, failing to win even his home geopolitical zone.
2019 Presidential Election: Flying the PDP flag, Atiku failed to win his own polling unit, ward, and local government in Adamawa. Buhari defeated him in his backyard, even without campaigning there. Nationally, Atiku lost to Buhari with a margin of over 3.9 million votes (15.2 million to 11.3 million).
2023 Presidential Election: Atiku was again fielded by the PDP, yet:
He won only the Northeast.
He lost the Northwest—the region with the highest voter population—to Tinubu.
He came a distant third in the Northcentral, behind Tinubu and Peter Obi.
He finished third in all three Southern zones, confirming his inability to gain traction beyond his regional base.
“He has never been able to deliver his zone convincingly, let alone the nation,” said Dr. Amiida Fraser. MFR –
a political analyst. “He has been consistently outmatched, outstrategized, and outvoted.”
The Tinubu Factor: Political Sagacity, Electoral Dominance
Unlike Atiku, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has demonstrated both party-building prowess and electoral supremacy:
Architect of the APC merger, which unseated an incumbent PDP government in 2015.
Delivered Lagos State consistently from 1999 to date, building an unbroken progressive dynasty.
In 2023, defied the odds to win a fiercely contested election, securing 8.79 million votes despite cash shortages, internal sabotage, and widespread opposition.
Unlike Atiku, Tinubu won his polling unit, ward, LGA, and state, reinforcing his enduring popularity.
North No Longer a Safe Bet
The assumption that Atiku can easily swing the North is now outdated and unsubstantiated:
In 2023, the Northwest, with the largest voter base, chose Tinubu.
Northcentral states like Kwara, Kogi, and Niger leaned toward the APC.
Even in the Northeast, Atiku won narrowly, with strong APC showings in Borno and Yobe.
The myth of Atiku’s northern grip is weakened further by rising regional sentiments, a divided PDP, and a lack of grassroots machinery compared to Tinubu’s expansive political network.
2027 and the Delusion of Atiku’s Magic Wand
Atiku’s record of five failed presidential attempts, lack of consistent voter base, and repeated defeats in his home state undermine any credible pathway to the presidency in 2027. The idea that he possesses a magic wand to unseat a sitting president with Tinubu’s capacity is not supported by any empirical evidence.
“Nigeria has moved on from Atiku’s politics,” notes Professor Habeeb Lawal. “His best moment came and went in 2007 or 2011. 2027 belongs to newer coalitions, reformers, and incumbents with results—not recycled rhetoric.”
Conclusion: Sentiment vs. Substance
While every citizen has the right to contest, elections are won with structure, delivery, and credibility—not nostalgia or media hype. Atiku Abubakar may remain a respected statesman, but his presidential ambition has been consistently rejected by the Nigerian electorate.
With President Tinubu’s ongoing reforms in infrastructure, economic recovery, digital governance, and regional engagement gaining traction, it will take more than empty slogans to challenge the APC in 2027.
The road to 2027 is open—but Atiku is no longer the man for that journey.
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