NIGERIA’S GREAT RESET – PART 10
FROM EXTRACTION TO ENTERPRISE: TRADE, SOLID MINERALS, INVESTMENT AND THE CAPITAL MARKET
By Gloria Fraser, MFR
President Tinubu’s reforms are reopening Nigeria to investment, but lasting prosperity requires the country to process what it extracts, export what it produces and convert financial confidence into productive enterprise
OPENING REFLECTION
“A nation does not become wealthy merely because the world buys its resources. It becomes wealthy when its people acquire the knowledge, industries and markets required to multiply their value.”
For generations, Nigeria has exported crude oil, minerals and crops while importing their refined and manufactured derivatives. This earns revenue but exports jobs, technology and industrial knowledge.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration is confronting this contradiction through reforms affecting foreign exchange, customs, minerals, investment and capital markets. Nigeria must become a competitive producer and exporter.
THE RETURN OF THE TRADE SURPLUS
First-quarter 2026 merchandise trade reached ₦34.79 trillion: ₦21.17 trillion in exports, ₦13.62 trillion in imports and a ₦7.55 trillion surplus—over four times the preceding quarter’s balance.
This reverses late 2023’s deficit, reflecting strong petroleum exports, fewer petroleum-product imports and domestic refining.
Crude oil contributed ₦11.2 trillion and other petroleum products ₦6.8 trillion—roughly 85 per cent of exports—against ₦3.2 trillion in non-oil exports. The surplus is not completed diversification.
The goal is processed cocoa, packaged foods, refined minerals and manufactured goods rather than raw commodities.
Dangote, BUA, Indorama and other processors show that Nigerian businesses can build integrated value chains when policy rewards production and infrastructure supports scale.
TRADE MUST CREATE PRODUCTION
President Tinubu’s commercial engagements should be judged by factories, technology transfer, exports, supply chains and jobs—not agreements signed.
The African Continental Free Trade Area offers a continent-wide market, but Nigeria cannot lead while businesses face unreliable electricity, costly credit and congested ports.
Customs modernisation and the National Single Window can reduce documentation, integrate agencies and limit unofficial payments. Yet higher customs revenue does not prove efficiency. Better tests are clearance times, port costs, predictability and successful Nigerian exporters.
THE MINERAL OPPORTUNITY
Nigeria possesses lithium, gold, iron ore, limestone, lead, zinc, tin and bitumen. These were known before Tinubu; what has changed is the urgency surrounding mapping, formalisation, investment and processing.
The administration’s stronger value-addition position increasingly ties mining rights to domestic-processing plans. In May 2024, Tinubu welcomed a Chinese-backed Nasarawa lithium facility reported at 4,000 tonnes daily; another investor proposed a $200 million project.
In July 2026, Tinubu, represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, commissioned Diamond New Energy’s $250 million Nasarawa facility, officially reported at 6,000 tonnes daily. Government challenged its promoters to advance from processed ore to battery materials and Nigerian-made batteries.
Lithium is a critical mineral, not technically a rare-earth element. Processing ore is progress, but does not equal producing battery-grade chemicals, cells or electric-vehicle batteries. Nigeria must climb that value chain.
LEARNING WITHOUT COPYING
Indonesia’s raw-nickel restrictions attracted processing but generated environmental and trade disputes. Botswana captured more value from diamonds, while Chile demonstrates the importance of competence, stable regulation and community protection.
Nigeria should adapt these lessons. Raw-export restrictions will fail without power, transport, technology and finance. Investors need clear rules; host communities need consultation, employment and environmental protection.
Illegal mining, smuggling and unsafe extraction must be confronted. A credible mineral economy requires documented production, worker protection and regulated revenue.
INVESTMENT: QUANTITY AND QUALITY
Capital importation reached approximately $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of about 84 per cent from the corresponding period of 2025. This indicates renewed international interest, but the composition demands caution.
Portfolio investment accounted for $9.86 billion, or 95.09 per cent, while foreign direct investment was only $135.08 million, or 1.3 per cent. Portfolio funds support market liquidity and financing, but can leave rapidly when interest rates or global conditions change. Foreign direct investment is generally more durable because it builds productive assets.
Nigeria therefore needs better capital, not merely more capital: investment that establishes factories and infrastructure, transfers technology, develops Nigerian suppliers, creates employment and earns export revenue.
DIASPORA REMITTANCES: A REFORM MILESTONE
The improvement in formal diaspora remittances is another important Tinubu-administration achievement. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso reported that International Money Transfer Operator inflows reached a record $947 million in July 2026, approaching the Bank’s $1 billion monthly target.
Formal IMTO inflows totalled $3.8 billion during the first seven months—50.2 per cent above the corresponding 2025 figure—following exchange-rate reform, revised IMTO regulation, the Non-Resident BVN and closer diaspora engagement.
Sustaining July’s performance would produce about $11.4 billion annually. That remains below total remittances received by global leaders such as India and Mexico, but Nigeria’s immediate achievement is moving more transfers into transparent formal channels, strengthening households, foreign-exchange liquidity and external stability.
FOLLOWING THE PUBLIC MONEY
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele’s August 2026 account stated that an estimated ₦15.8 trillion in subsidy savings was shared across the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025: ₦5.43 trillion to the Federal Government, ₦6.52 trillion to states and ₦3.88 trillion to local governments.
Federal incremental resources totalled ₦20.4 trillion, including ₦11.85 trillion in additional borrowing, against ₦30.64 trillion in additional expenditure. Major costs included ₦9.39 trillion for wage adjustments, ₦9.37 trillion for exchange-rate effects on external debt service, ₦6.47 trillion for strategic infrastructure and ₦3.14 trillion for electricity support.
The disclosure shows that reform proceeds were not one idle cash reserve, but implementation reports and independent audits remain necessary to establish what citizens received.
THE CAPITAL-MARKET MILESTONE
Equities market capitalisation crossed ₦160 trillion in August 2026, against roughly ₦30 trillion in 2023, reflecting stronger sentiment, earnings, revaluation and listings.
Market capitalisation is neither government revenue nor proof of proportionate production or household prosperity. Inflation, depreciation, share prices and listings can increase it.
The test is whether businesses use the market to finance factories, power, technology and infrastructure, with smaller enterprises gaining credible access to capital.
An NNPCL listing requires audited accounts, transparent governance, disclosed liabilities and minority-shareholder protection.
INDUSTRIAL CHAMPIONS AND FAIR COMPETITION
Nigeria needs more ambitious enterprises. Dangote and BUA industrialised before Tinubu; his legitimate credit lies in improving the environment for their production, exports and expansion.
Support for national champions must not shield monopoly or exclusion. Smaller businesses also require power, finance, transport and fair market access. Nigeria needs many industrial success stories, not merely surviving conglomerates.
THE FINAL WORD
President Tinubu deserves credit for strengthening market confidence, modernising trade and encouraging mineral processing. The Great Reset must nevertheless move beyond headlines.
A petroleum-dominated surplus is not diversification; lithium processing is not yet a battery industry; portfolio inflows are not factories; market momentum is not automatically widespread prosperity.
The next stage must connect the gains: Nigerian minerals supplying Nigerian industries, Nigerian capital financing enterprise, modern ports carrying Nigerian products and partnerships expanding productive capacity.
Nigeria must move beyond digging, shipping and importing to processing, manufacturing, financing, branding and exporting.
That is how extraction becomes enterprise, trade becomes development and natural wealth becomes national power.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
“Resources create opportunity; only knowledge, industry and disciplined institutions convert that opportunity into prosperity.”
— Princess Gloria Amiida Adebajo-Fraser, MFR
THE NATIONAL PATRIOTS
The National Patriots believe President Tinubu’s trade, investment and solid-minerals reforms can reposition Nigeria as a productive African economic power. Nigeria must process minerals locally, expand non-oil exports, modernise trade systems and direct capital towards factories, technology and employment.
Progress must be measured not only by trade values or market capitalisation, but by the productive capacity, knowledge and opportunities created for Nigerians.
Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser, MFR
President, The National Patriots
Former Special Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan, GCFR
Vice-Chairman, Strategic Communications Committee, Buhari PCC 2019
Member, Strategy Committee, Presidency 2023.
