Former Special Adviser to Vice President Kashim Shettima on Political Matters, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed has issued a strong warning, saying Nigeria will break up if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government rig election in 2027.
Speaking in a video interview in Kaduna, Baba-Ahmed, who appeared alongside Professor Usman Yusuf, former Executive Secretary of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), also noted that no politician can win the Nigerian presidency in 2027 without the support of the northern region.
He warned against further marginalization of the North, noting that continued disregard for the region would have consequences.
Nigeria will cease to exist if Tinubu rigs the election in 2027 — Former SA on political matters to Bola Tinubu, Dr. Hakeem Baba Ahmed pic.twitter.com/QQlaKRl4FG
“If they plan to rig the election, they should be careful. It won’t be good for Nigeria. The North is watching. Elders, masses, and interest groups will soon say ‘enough is enough.’ The injustice and sidelining must stop,” he said.
While, he didn’t specifically mentioned anyone, observers said he was referring to the government of Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Speaking further, he stated that the North’s position will become clear in the next six months, adding that this decision will shape the outcome of the next presidential election.
“No politician can become President of Nigeria without the support of the North,” Baba-Ahmed declared. “The region will decide its path, and others can either follow or go their own way.”
Baba-Ahmed emphasised that the North had endured profound hardship, particularly during the Boko Haram insurgency, which affected all ethnic and religious groups.
“We want a government that understands our problems and is ready to address them,” he said, stressing that northerners are more politically conscious now and will no longer be swayed by deceptive or divisive rhetoric.
The former presidential aide underscored the importance of equity and justice, warning that the patience of the region was wearing thin.
“The North is watching. Elders, youth, and interest groups will soon say enough is enough,” he said.
He reiterated that the political future of Nigeria depends heavily on northern support, urging all political stakeholders to treat the region with respect and fairness.
“The North’s stance will significantly influence the 2027 elections. It’s time politicians started taking us seriously,” Baba-Ahmed stated.
Baba-Ahmed’s past criticisms of Buhari, Jonathan
Baba-Ahmed, a former spokesperson for the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), recently served as special adviser to the president on political matters attached to the Office of the Vice President
Before his appointment under Tinubu, Baba-Ahmed had been a vocal critic of former Presidents Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan, particularly on governance, security and national unity.
As NEF spokesman in 2019, he described Buhari as “too slow,” questioning delays in tackling insecurity and noting that banditry and kidnapping had escalated under his watch.
He said at the time: “If I have an opportunity to speak with the president, I will say: ‘Sir, please wake up and smell the coffee, this country is falling apart. It is in very serious danger, it is going down under your watch. You swore in 2015 and again in 2019 that you will protect citizens, the territorial integrity of Nigeria. Sorry, sir, you are not doing that, doing it well or you are not doing it at all.”
Baba-Ahmed also criticised Jonathan’s handling of the Boko Haram insurgency and the Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction. In 2014, the NEF – with Baba-Ahmed as a signatory – warned that Jonathan’s re-election prospects hinged on rescuing the girls.
In his political adviser role in the Tinubu presidency, Baba-Ahmed had a public fallout with Minister of Defence (State) Bello Matawalle, following comments made by Matawalle about NEF. In April 2024, Matawalle attacked Baba-Ahmed for allegedly calling NEF a “political paperweight” after the group claimed the North had made a mistake in supporting Tinubu in 2023.
Baba-Ahmed responded, saying, “Matawalle should have highlighted the contributions of northern appointees to the administration rather than attacking NEF. I do not have time for petty insults when critical issues are at stake.”
Matawalle, however, continued his criticism, accusing Baba-Ahmed of failing to defend the administration adequately. Baba-Ahmed eventually resigned from his role as political adviser to the president in March 2025, citing personal reasons.
His latest scathing remarks echoed the sentiments of many in the region who have complained of marginalisation and worsening conditions under the Tinubu administration. His warning comes amid deepening anger in the North over insecurity, economic hardship and alleged political exclusion under the current government.
We’re not deterred, it’s his personal opinion – APC
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) dismissed his remarks as “personal opinion.”
APC National Director of Publicity Alhaji Bala Ibrahim told Daily Trust that “Hakeem Baba-Ahmed was the spokesman of the NEF, a forum that said times without number that in the 2023 election, the North will not vote for the APC or Tinubu. But the North voted for Tinubu, the North voted for APC.
“Again, his blood brother was the running mate of the Labour Party presidential candidate. So he has been in the opposition and I believe even while he was in government, nothing had happened to change the opinion of the public regarding him.
“So he is entitled to his opinion. If you look at his antecedent and background, he commands respect, but he is partisan against the party in power. So I have not seen anything new and this will not change anything in 2027.”
Ibrahim added: “He is a respected member not just of the North, but a person that commands a lot of respect across the country. But his position is singular, it’s his personal opinion. He has only one vote.
“He is entitled to his own opinion, so the APC is not deterred. But that does not give him the power to speak for the whole of the North. He went into the administration of Tinubu, not by vote; not as a representative of the North.”
Ex-presidential political adviser flirting with opposition
Onanuga Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, in a reaction, told Daily Trust last night, that “Flirting with the opposition just after leaving the government as adviser to Vice President Kashim Shettima speaks” to Baba-Ahmed’s character.”
“The jaundiced views of the coalition of frustrated and power-hungry politicians would be of no consequence to his [Tinubu’s] poll fortunes.”
He noted the president’s achievements would “speak for him” if he contests in 2027.
“I have read the full transcript of what Baba-Ahmed said. It is clear he has now teamed up with Atiku’s coalition of the disgruntled just a few days after he resigned from the Tinubu-led administration. We await his so-called revelations.
“Boasting the mobilisation of the north against President Tinubu showed that he was ignorant of the various efforts by the Tinubu administration to improve the lot of our people in the three northern regions, actions that will still draw him the votes in 2027.
“President Tinubu is unfazed by the attacks of Baba-Ahmed and his co-travellers. Despite the present difficulties, Tinubu focuses on delivering prosperity to our country. Interestingly, opposition elements are playing blind to the various achievements of the Tinubu administration, such as the trade surpluses, the increase in net foreign reserve.
“The considerable investments in our economy as global and business confidence is restored, the phenomenal growth in tax revenue, investment in the oil and gas sector, CNG, NELFUND, CREDITCORP.
“President Tinubu is working hard to retool our economy and rebuild our country for posterity. He is very focused on delivering his campaign promises of shared prosperity. His achievements will speak for him in 2027 if he seeks re-election. The jaundiced views of the coalition of frustrated and power-hungry politicians would be of no consequence to his poll fortunes,” Onanuga said.
