Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, says its cocoa output is beginning to recover after several years of supply disruptions that drove global chocolate prices to record highs.
The country expects production to rise to between 2 million and 2.1 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, marking its first significant rebound in three years. This forecast is higher than earlier market estimates, which had projected about 1.8 million tons.
As the backbone of global cocoa supply alongside neighbouring Ghana, Ivory Coast plays a crucial role in determining chocolate prices worldwide. Any disruption in West Africa’s cocoa production often leads to immediate price increases in Europe, the United States, and other major markets.
Over the past two years, cocoa prices surged due to poor harvests, crop diseases, and extreme weather conditions across the region. These challenges forced chocolate manufacturers to raise prices, reduce product sizes, and face declining profit margins.
According to the head of the country’s Coffee and Cocoa Council, Yves Brahima Koné, higher cocoa prices have recently helped farmers reinvest in their plantations, improving productivity and boosting output.
However, he noted that while more than 1.7 million tons had already been recorded by mid-May, a large volume of cocoa remains unsold as farmers and exporters wait for better prices.
Analysts warn that if these stockpiles enter the market in large quantities, global supply could temporarily surge, easing price pressures in the short term.
Despite the current recovery, concerns remain about the next farming cycle. Early assessments suggest weaker pod development and reduced flower growth in some regions, raising fears of another potential decline in output.
Experts also caution that climate change, unpredictable rainfall, and crop diseases continue to threaten cocoa production across West Africa, where millions depend on the industry for their livelihood.
