2027: Rivers Crisis, Party Realignments and Tinubu’s Electoral Calculus — Otubanjo Speaks
A Director of Research at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Prof. Femi Otubanjo, has weighed in on Nigeria’s shifting political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections, warning that recent developments in Rivers State could have serious implications for President Bola Tinubu’s support base in the South-South.
Otubanjo, who spoke during an interview on an Arise News programme, said the ongoing political tensions surrounding Governor Siminalayi Fubara reflect deeper cracks in Nigeria’s party system and internal democracy across major political platforms.
According to him, the manner in which Fubara’s political situation has played out could alienate key voter blocs, particularly the Ijaw ethnic group, which he described as a critical force in Rivers State and the wider South-South region.
He argued that the perceived sidelining of an Ijaw governor could create resentment among voters and weaken the ruling party’s chances in the region, noting that political loyalty in Rivers State should not be taken for granted.
“What has emerged in Rivers is that the political dynamics there may end up working against the APC’s long-term interests,” he said, warning that voter sentiment in the state could shift if grievances are not managed carefully.
The scholar also suggested that the crisis may not necessarily hurt Governor Fubara politically, arguing that he could still find a path forward within a different political arrangement, though not without risks tied to internal power struggles.
Turning to the broader 2027 political race, Otubanjo described the emerging alignments as increasingly predictable, arguing that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s influence remains central within the opposition space.
He likened Nigerian politics to a structured league system, placing Tinubu and Atiku in what he called the “Premier League” of national politics due to their long-standing roles in party formation, coalitions, and presidential contests.
“Both Tinubu and Atiku have defined the political space for over two decades,” he said, noting that their experience and networks set them apart from other contenders.
On the current balance of power, Otubanjo said President Tinubu appears to have a structural advantage going into 2027, especially with increased control at the state level through governors aligned with the APC.
He pointed to the importance of incumbency, party machinery, and elite political alliances, while also acknowledging that Nigerian elections remain unpredictable and capable of shifting rapidly.
However, he cautioned that political outcomes are never fixed, stressing that new alliances, voter sentiment, and unforeseen developments could still reshape the contest before 2027.
“Politics is fluid. Even when the odds appear clear, things can change quickly,” he added.
