STATECRAFT AFTER SHOCK THERAPY: HOW PRESIDENT TINUBU CAN TURN ECONOMIC PAIN INTO POLITICAL VICTORY IN 2027
By Gloria Fraser, MFR
Governance & Perception Management Consultant
History is filled with leaders who saved economies and lost elections. It is also filled with leaders who avoided difficult decisions, won elections and left their nations weaker. The true test of leadership is therefore not choosing between reform and popularity. It is finding a way to achieve both.
That is the defining challenge facing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu today.
As Nigeria gradually moves towards the 2027 presidential election, the country finds itself at one of the most consequential moments in its democratic journey. The administration has embarked upon one of the most ambitious economic reform programmes since the return of civilian rule in 1999. Fuel subsidies have been removed, the foreign exchange market liberalised, public finances restructured and tax reforms initiated. These are measures that successive governments often acknowledged were necessary but hesitated to implement because of their political consequences.
Few serious economists dispute that Nigeria’s economy required major surgery. For years, fuel subsidies consumed vast public resources that could have been deployed to infrastructure, healthcare, education and security. Exchange-rate distortions encouraged arbitrage, weakened investor confidence and created inefficiencies across the economy. Government revenues remained inadequate for a nation with Nigeria’s population, aspirations and development challenges. The consensus among many economic experts was that reform could no longer be postponed indefinitely.
Yet economics and politics rarely operate on the same timetable.
While economists focus on long-term gains, citizens experience immediate realities. They encounter rising food prices, higher transportation costs, increased business expenses and shrinking purchasing power. Families do not analyse fiscal consolidation reports when they visit markets. Traders do not measure exchange-rate liberalisation while struggling with rising operating costs. Parents do not calculate macroeconomic improvements when confronted with school fees, medical bills and household expenses.
This gap between economic necessity and public experience is where governments either consolidate political support or begin to lose it.
Across Africa, Asia and Latin America, history offers numerous examples of governments that implemented reforms considered economically sound but politically costly. Argentina’s Mauricio Macri pursued ambitious restructuring policies that won international approval but ultimately failed to convince enough citizens that the immediate sacrifices were worthwhile. Ecuador’s subsidy reforms triggered nationwide unrest. Pakistan’s repeated engagements with IMF-backed reforms often generated political turbulence. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis demonstrated how rapidly public frustration can overwhelm governments when citizens lose confidence that hardship will eventually produce meaningful relief.
The lesson from these experiences is not that reform is wrong. The lesson is that reform without visible relief becomes politically vulnerable.
Citizens can tolerate sacrifice when they understand its purpose and believe there is a destination. They can endure hardship when they see fairness, transparency and tangible evidence of progress. What they struggle to accept is prolonged pain without visible signs of improvement.
This is why 2027 remains both a challenge and an opportunity for President Tinubu.
Contrary to the predictions of some political commentators, the President’s political future is far from predetermined. Major infrastructure projects are advancing across the country. Federal allocations to states have increased substantially following fiscal reforms. Revenue generation has improved. Investor confidence has shown signs of recovery. Several macroeconomic indicators are gradually stabilising. These developments matter because they represent the foundations
