Ahead of the Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) primaries to elect the candidate for the 2027 gubernatorial election, three names dominate early calculations: Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, and Senator Tokunbo Abiru. Yet internal divisions within the Mandate Group may give Hamzat a strategic advantage, GBENGA SALAU reports.
Ahead of May 18, 2026, governorship primaries of the All Progressive Congress (APC) political activities have intensified nationwide, as aspirants position themselves for the party’s tickets in what is shaping up to be a defining moment for its internal power dynamics.
Across several states, alignments are crystallising, calculations are sharpening, and the political field is gradually narrowing, effectively separating serious contenders from fringe aspirants. While some states appear to have settled for consensus arrangements, others, particularly Lagos, remain theatres of complex negotiations, subtle intrigues, and strategic realignments.
In Ogun State, for instance, party leaders have openly rallied behind a consensus candidate, Senator Solomon Olamilekan, signalling a coordinated approach to avoid divisive primaries. In Lagos, however, the situation is far less straightforward.
Though there have been suggestions of a similar consensus path, the state chapter of the ruling party continues to witness intense horse-trading behind closed doors.
Early claims that a consensus candidate had emerged in Lagos were quickly met with resistance. Key stakeholders within the Mandate Group, alongside some aspirants, dismissed the reports as premature “name-dropping”, insisting that no such agreement had been reached.
At the centre of the unfolding contest is the incumbent Deputy Governor, Dr Obafemi Hamzat, whose candidacy has steadily gained traction within influential party circles. While some insiders maintain that President Bola Tinubu and the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC) have endorsed Hamzat, others counter that his support base is largely anchored within the Justice Forum, a dominant political bloc in Lagos APC led by Prince Tajudeen Olusi.
Despite the conflicting narratives, there is a growing consensus among party observers that Hamzat currently enjoys a strategic advantage. Sources within the party suggest that, beyond the Justice Forum’s backing, a faction of the Mandate Group led by Abdullahi Enilolobo has also aligned with his ambition.
In addition, a significant number of party stakeholders who are not formally tied to either of the two major blocs are said to be quietly rallying behind him.
Power blocs and the Lagos template
To understand the dynamics at play, analysts point to the historical role of political blocs in shaping Lagos politics. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, two dominant structures, the Justice Forum and the Mandate Group, have functioned as the principal platforms through which political power is negotiated and distributed within the state.
These blocs have not only influenced candidate selection but have also served as the critical pipelines through which aspirants secure the endorsement of the party’s apex leadership, particularly Tinubu, widely regarded as the central figure in Lagos APC politics.
Tinubu himself emerged as governor in 1999 through the Justice Forum, in alliance with the pan-Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere. By his second term, the Mandate Group had become a co-dominant force, establishing a pattern that has endured for over two decades, where aspirants must secure the backing of at least one of the blocs to stand a realistic chance.
Traditionally, the blocs function both as mobilising structures and as political gatekeepers, with their endorsements often determining the trajectory of aspirants. In many cases, they also act as intermediaries, presenting preferred candidates to Tinubu for final ratification.
However, recent developments suggest a significant shift in this long-standing balance.
Mandate Group’s decline, Justice Forum’s resurgence
For years, the Mandate Group held considerable sway, particularly under the leadership of former Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, and the late lawmaker who represented Lagos East, Senator Adebayo Osinowo.
During that period, the group exercised substantial control over political structures, especially in Lagos West Senatorial District, widely considered the stronghold of Lagos politics.
Party insiders recall that at the height of its influence, the Mandate Group effectively dictated political outcomes across several local government areas, with Aregbesola and Osinowo playing decisive roles in determining candidates for elective and appointive positions.
But the exit of these two influential figures has left a leadership vacuum that the group has struggled to fill. Aregbesola’s fallout with Tinubu, coupled with Osinowo’s death, significantly weakened the bloc’s cohesion and bargaining power.
Efforts to reconstitute leadership have instead deepened internal divisions. The struggle for control between Enilolobo and Lagos State House of Assembly Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, triggered factionalisation within the group. While Enilolobo sought to consolidate leadership, Obasa, leveraging his position as a senior elected official and financier, resisted the move.
The resulting power tussle led to the emergence of parallel factions, further complicated by the involvement of key figures, including the Chief of Staff to the governor, Tayo Ayinde. The fragmentation has since eroded the group’s once formidable influence.
The cracks became increasingly visible during the last local government elections, where the Justice Forum reportedly dominated candidate selection and eventual winners.
Similar patterns were observed in subsequent appointments, including supervisory councillor positions, reinforcing perceptions that the Mandate Group had lost its grip.
The defection of key political actors, notably the lawmaker representing Ikeja Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, James Faleke, from the Mandate Group to the Justice Forum further underscored this shift. Faleke’s emergence as a coordinator within the Justice Forum strengthened the bloc’s organisational capacity and reach.
Hamzat’s advantage and the road to May 18
Against this backdrop, Hamzat’s candidacy appears to be benefiting from the evolving power dynamics. With the Justice Forum firmly in his corner and the Mandate Group weakened by internal discord, there is currently no equally cohesive structure positioned to challenge his emergence.
Party insiders describe the situation as one in which Hamzat is “almost running unopposed”, not necessarily because of the absence of other aspirants, but because of the lack of a strong, united bloc capable of mounting an effective counterweight.
“This is about structure and organisation,” a party source said. “At the moment, the Justice Forum is the only bloc that can confidently claim it has the machinery to deliver.
The Mandate Group is divided, and that has consequences.”
Another source pointed to the outcome of the last general elections, particularly in Lagos West Senatorial District, where the APC recorded unexpected setbacks. Once regarded as the party’s electoral fortress, the district has shown signs of vulnerability, raising questions about the effectiveness of existing structures.
“Lagos West used to be the backbone of APC’s strength, but that has changed,” the source noted. “The party lost ground there, and some of the people expected to deliver did not.
That reality is shaping current decisions.”
However, despite the apparent momentum behind Hamzat, observers caution that the final outcome may still depend on President Tinubu’s position. Historically, the President has demonstrated a willingness to respect the preferences of dominant party blocs, but he has also intervened when necessary, particularly when alternative options are presented with compelling arguments.
In previous contests, the Mandate Group successfully counterbalanced the Justice Forum by presenting strong candidates and mobilising support across key constituencies. In the current scenario, analysts say such a counterforce appears largely absent.
“Tinubu has, in the past, gone against the Justice Forum’s position, but that was when there was a strong alternative,” another insider explained. “Right now, there is no bloc with that level of cohesion to challenge the Justice Forum.”
Within the Mandate Group, some aspirants are reportedly reassessing their positions. One prominent figure, who had nursed governorship ambitions quietly, has reportedly opted not to resign from his appointive position, a move interpreted by some party members as a sign of waning confidence in his chances.
“There is a sense that some people have read the situation and decided not to confront a moving train,” a source said.
Earlier efforts by a faction of the group to promote the return of former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode also appear to have stalled. While the idea generated initial buzz, it failed to gain traction, largely due to the lack of unity within the bloc pushing it.
A source within the GAC disclosed that consensus-building in Lagos politics often requires a delicate balance of interests, and without a unified platform, even strong candidates may struggle to gain acceptance.
According to the GAC member, “Ambode is the only one among the three major contestants who has the constitutional right to spend one term, having been governor from 2015 to 2019, when the party hierarchy denied him a return ticket. But being a Christian, his candidature may suffer a setback because Muslim stakeholders in Lagos are insisting that the next governor must be a Muslim.”
The Muslim argument is that Ambode and the incumbent governor, both Christians, have spent 12 straight years.
But there is also the concern that the former Accountant-General of the state may not be easily amenable if given power again, as he did during his first tenure.
For Tokunbo Abiru, the concern is that the incumbent Lagos East senator has the right to two terms if allowed to rule, “a situation that might deprive Mr President of the chance of positioning his son, Seyi, to take over the mantle of Lagos leadership in 2031, when he may be retiring or slowing down due to age in politics.”
For Hamzat, the current moment represents a critical juncture in a long-standing political journey. This marks his third attempt at securing the APC governorship ticket. He previously contested and lost to Ambode, and later stepped down to become Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s deputy.
Now, with shifting alliances and a favourable alignment of political forces, he appears closer than ever to clinching the ticket.
Yet, as seasoned observers of Lagos politics caution, the state’s political terrain is often unpredictable, with last-minute shifts capable of altering outcomes.
One factor that might also work in his favour is the rumoured scheme to compel his boss, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, to resign or step aside before 2027, thereby allowing him to be sworn in as governor.
The GAC source said if that happens, Hamzat may be given a treatment similar to that of Lucky Aiyedatiwa, the governor of Ondo, implying that he may not be entitled to two full terms, having been sworn into power midstream.
For now, however, the balance appears tilted in Hamzat’s favour. Whether he ultimately secures the ticket and potentially makes history will become clearer as the countdown to May 18 reaches its climax.
However, the National Chairman of the APC, Nentawe Yilwatda, had disclosed that President Tinubu had specifically directed that party members should be allowed to vote for the candidate of their choice when consensus fails.
Again, the Chairman of Lagos APC, Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi, has also doused the insinuation that the party hierarchy has endorsed any particular candidate or that any such directive has emanated from the presidency.
