Speaking at a Virtual International Conference on Ajaokuta on April 16, 2026, the professor lamented that despite an estimated $10 billion sunk into the steel complex, Nigeria has not produced a single tonne of steel from the facility since its inception over four decades ago.
Aresearcher and professor in economics, innovation, and technology management, Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, has sharply criticised successive Nigerian governments over the decades-long failure of the Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited, describing the project as a “tragic failure of leadership” and a “monument to unrealised potential.”
Speaking at a Virtual International Conference on Ajaokuta on April 16, 2026, the professor lamented that despite an estimated $10 billion sunk into the steel complex, Nigeria has not produced a single tonne of steel from the facility since its inception over four decades ago.
“Ajaokuta suffers the sunk cost fallacy,” he declared. “As we speak, we continue pumping funds into a financial black hole, wasting precious resources.”
The sprawling 24,000-hectare steel plant in Kogi State, designed to produce 1.3 million tonnes of steel annually, reached about 98 percent completion as far back as 1994.
However, it has remained idle, an outcome Oyelaran-Oyeyinka described as “an egregious symbol of our failure” and “a monumental white elephant.”
According to the professor, Nigeria’s failure to operationalise Ajaokuta has come at a steep economic cost, forcing the country to import about $4 billion worth of steel annually.
“We forfeited industrial sovereignty, relying on others for the raw material of development,” he said. “Every tonne of steel imported builds the economies of nations that produce it.”
He noted that if Ajaokuta had been functional, it could have supplied nearly a quarter of Nigeria’s steel demand, saving close to $1 billion annually in foreign exchange.
Over time, this translates into tens of billions of dollars in lost economic value.
“Over four decades, that amounts to more than $36 billion lost, far exceeding the initial investment,” he added.
Drawing comparisons with global industrial powers, Oyelaran-Oyeyinka highlighted how countries like China, India and South Korea leveraged steel production as the backbone of their economic transformation.
“Steel is not just a commodity. It is the backbone of modern civilisation,” he stressed. “It builds our bridges, factories, cars and cities, it is the silent force behind industrial power.”
While these countries aligned policy, financing and leadership to build thriving steel industries, he said Nigeria allowed corruption, policy inconsistency and poor leadership to derail its ambitions.
“There is no other way to describe the story of public steel programmes in Nigeria other than a tragic failure of leadership,” he said bluntly.
Beyond financial losses, the professor said the abandonment of Ajaokuta has had devastating human and social consequences.
The project was projected to employ over 10,000 workers directly and support hundreds of thousands of indirect jobs across sectors like mining, transport and engineering.
“Decades of lost jobs have worsened unemployment, while Nigeria missed the opportunity to build critical skills in metallurgy and industrial management,” he said.
He added that the failure also stalled regional development, noting that Kogi State could have become a major industrial hub.
Oyelaran-Oyeyinka called for the immediate privatisation of the steel complex, arguing that government control has proven ineffective.
“Decades of evidence should convince us that public officials and ministries cannot run profit-making enterprises,” he said.
He proposed that a capable Nigerian consortium take majority ownership in partnership with experienced global steel operators.
“The time for hesitation has passed. The time for decisive action is now,” he warned.
Despite the grim history, the economist maintained that reviving Ajaokuta could still transform Nigeria’s economy.
According to him, a functional steel industry could generate between $9 billion and $14 billion annually, save nearly $1 billion in foreign exchange, and create over 70,000 jobs.
“This is not just about steel,” he said. “It is about sovereignty, whether Nigeria will continue to depend on others or seize control of its destiny.”
In conclusion, Oyelaran-Oyeyinka likened Nigeria’s situation to a national embarrassment, especially given its population size.
“A country of over 230 million people without primary steel production is a travesty,” he said.
He urged the government to either fix Ajaokuta or support the emergence of a privately driven alternative, similar to the model used in large-scale industrial projects.
“Let us choose progress over paralysis, action over hesitation,” he added. “Reviving Ajaokuta is not just about producing steel, it is about reclaiming Nigeria’s economic future.”
