Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.3 percent by 2027, according to new estimates released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), placing the country ahead of several advanced economies in terms of growth rate.
The projection indicates a gradual recovery, following an expected growth of 4 percent in 2025 and a slightly revised 4.1 percent in 2026. Despite this improvement, the IMF clarified that faster growth does not necessarily mean Nigeria’s economy will surpass those of developed nations in overall size.
The forecast shows Nigeria outpacing countries such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, Italy, and Spain, all of which are expected to record lower growth rates within the same period.
An IMF official explained that the slight downgrade for 2026 reflects pressure from rising fuel and fertiliser costs, as well as increased shipping expenses linked to ongoing global tensions. These factors are expected to weigh on oil sector performance, although higher oil prices may provide some level of support, leading to a rebound in 2027.
On inflation, Nigeria’s central bank aims to reduce rates to between 6 and 9 percent over the medium term. Achieving this target will depend heavily on maintaining tight monetary policies and closely monitoring exchange rate movements and inflation expectations.
Globally, economic growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, compared to about 3.4 percent recorded in 2024 and 2025. Inflation worldwide is expected to rise to 4.4 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.7 percent the following year.
The IMF noted that ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have disrupted global markets, contributing to slower growth projections. Without these disruptions, global growth figures would likely have been slightly higher.
In sub-Saharan Africa, growth prospects have also been adjusted downward due to weakening commodity prices, reduced foreign aid, and rising costs of fuel and fertilisers. Inflation in the region is expected to increase, while food security concerns persist due to higher agricultural input costs.
The IMF added that it is working with global partners to monitor energy market developments and support affected countries, while also urging a quick resolution to ongoing conflicts to stabilise the global economy.
