NIGERIA’S GREAT RESET – PART 12
FROM CRUDE WEALTH TO ENERGY POWER: OIL, GAS AND NIGERIA’S INDUSTRIAL FUTURE
By Gloria Fraser, MFR
President Tinubu’s reforms are reviving production, drilling, investment, refining and gas development—but petroleum wealth must ultimately power industries, create employment and strengthen public finances
OPENING REFLECTION
Nigeria’s petroleum industry resembles a farmer who harvests cassava, sells it cheaply and later buys expensive imported garri. The farmer possesses the raw material but surrenders its processing, employment and profit to somebody else.
Three Nigerian traditions illuminate the solution.
The Yoruba say, “Igi kan kò dá igbó ṣe”—one tree does not make a forest. Oil production alone cannot build an energy economy; pipelines, refineries, gas plants, power stations, skilled workers and host communities must work together.
The Hausa say, “Gaskiya ta fi kwabo”—truth is worth more than money. Production, investment and revenue figures must therefore be transparent.
The Igbo say, “Akụ ruo ụlọ, a mara onye kpara ya”—when wealth reaches home, its value becomes evident. Nigeria’s petroleum wealth must reach Nigerian homes, industries and communities.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who also serves as Minister of Petroleum Resources, inherited declining investment, oil theft, damaged pipelines, inactive assets, underperforming refineries and vast gas reserves insufficiently connected to industry. His reforms are reversing parts of that decline, but recovery must now become lasting domestic value.
PRODUCTION AND DRILLING ARE RECOVERING
Nigeria’s crude-oil and condensate production averaged approximately 1.735 million barrels per day in June 2026, the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the highest level since April 2020. Crude oil alone averaged about 1.56 million barrels daily, exceeding Nigeria’s 1.5-million-barrel OPEC quota for that month. NUPRC, Reuters
Drilling activity has also strengthened. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission recorded 73 rigs in March 2026, representing a 22.6 per cent year-on-year increase: 52 land-based, 12 offshore and nine swamp rigs.
However, only 31 were active; the others were on standby, stacked, in transit or undergoing mobilisation. The 52 land rigs should not be misrepresented as 52 simultaneously active rigs. ThisDay
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has connected this recovery to national revenue: “In the short term, our focus remains on increasing revenue from crude oil production.”
The improvement deserves recognition, although stable production above two million barrels daily remains a target—not an accomplished result.
REVENUE MUST REACH THE FEDERATION
Headlinenews.News reported that NNPCL remitted an estimated $15.33 billion to the Federation Account Allocation Committee during President Tinubu’s first three years—more than the combined dollar-denominated remittances attributed in the same assessment to the Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan and Buhari administrations.
The comparison is striking. It should, however, be described accurately as a comparison of reported remittances since 1999, not petroleum revenue generated since 1992. Revenue generated, operational deductions and money finally remitted are different measures.
Because no publicly available NNPCL–FAAC reconciliation reproduces the complete calculation, the figures remain reported estimates subject to correction when audited schedules are published.
The underlying achievement remains important: petroleum revenue reaching the Federation Account has reportedly increased substantially under President Tinubu.
The President reinforced that direction through his February 2026 Executive Order requiring government oil and gas revenues to flow directly into the Federation Account.
As President Tinubu stated: “Oil and gas revenues must serve the Nigerian people first, and this reform is about fairness and fiscal responsibility.” Federal Ministry of Finance
NNPCL, petroleum regulators and FAAC should publish monthly reconciliations showing production, sales, taxes, royalties, authorised operating charges and net remittances. Transparency would confirm the achievement and protect it from partisan dispute.
INVESTMENT AND LEGACY DISPUTES
The administration’s fiscal and regulatory reforms have contributed to more than $10 billion in final investment decisions. A new deep-offshore framework is intended to unlock up to $50 billion, beginning with the proposed Bonga South-West development, estimated at approximately $10 billion. State House
President Tinubu also resolved the prolonged OPL 245 impasse, creating a pathway for renewed development of the major offshore asset.
Another significant intervention concerns Global Gas and Refining Limited and Shell. Following representations and settlement claims presented by Fraser Consulting Ltd on behalf of Global Gas, President Tinubu approved a negotiated settlement of the company’s claims, moving the matter away from prolonged Supreme Court litigation.
The intervention offers a pathway towards resolving a dispute that had remained unsettled for years and had kept the principal investor away from Nigeria for some years.
Implementation must now translate the presidential approval into executed settlement terms and compliance by the parties.
The significance extends beyond one company. Investors judge a country not only by its resources and incentives, but also by whether contracts are respected and legitimate commercial disputes can be resolved fairly.
PRIVATE REFINING IS EXPANDING
The privately owned Dangote Refinery has demonstrated that large-scale domestic refining is possible. Its installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day could substantially reduce import dependence, although installed capacity must always be distinguished from actual throughput.
In Bayelsa, Dr Azibapu Eruani’s approximately $1 billion Azikel Refinery is nearing completion. Its redesigned capacity is 25,000 barrels per day, with the ability to process crude oil and condensate into petrol, diesel, kerosene and aviation fuel. It had not commenced commercial operation when its progress was reported in August 2026. Arise News
Governor Douye Diri praised Eruani for breaking new industrial ground in Bayelsa, observing that the state’s proximity to crude resources should support the refinery’s operations.
BUA Group’s proposed 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery and petrochemical complex in Akwa Ibom is also progressing, but BUA has cautioned against exaggerated completion claims. It remains under construction until the company confirms commissioning and commercial production. Arise News
Dangote, Azikel, BUA and other modular projects indicate that refining is opening to private capital. Government should guarantee competitive crude access, transparent pricing and fair regulation while refusing to subsidise inefficiency.
GAS MUST BECOME INDUSTRIAL POWER
Nigeria possesses more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves. The Gas Master Plan targets production growth from approximately eight billion cubic feet daily to ten billion by 2027 and twelve billion by 2030.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, has emphasised converting reserves into reliable supply and economic value. His practical point is compelling: “It is not okay for Nigerians to use firewood for cooking when the country is blessed with abundant gas resources.”
The Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano pipeline could supply power, fertiliser and manufacturing across northern Nigeria. Mainline welding and the River Niger crossing have been completed, but final connections and dependable gas delivery must still be demonstrated.
NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari summarised the required balance: “Oil sustains value today, gas underpins industrial growth, and transition investments are targeted and disciplined.” TheCable
LESSONS FROM SUCCESSFUL PRODUCERS
Norway converted petroleum earnings into transparent national savings. Qatar developed an integrated LNG industry. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are using oil revenue to finance infrastructure, manufacturing, technology and diversification. Trinidad and Tobago built fertiliser and petrochemical industries around gas.
Nigeria should adopt the shared principle: extract responsibly, process domestically, save transparently and invest petroleum income in productive capacity.
THE FINAL WORD
President Tinubu’s reforms have helped revive production, drilling, investment and private refining while repositioning gas as an industrial resource. The progress is real, but announcements, installed capacity and investment commitments are not final outcomes.
Nigeria’s reset will succeed when refineries operate consistently, gas reaches factories, petroleum revenues enter public accounts transparently and host communities experience development and environmental justice.
The country must stop exporting crude opportunity and importing finished hardship. Its natural wealth must finally reach home.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
“Natural resources become national wealth only when they are processed productively, governed transparently and invested in the people.”
— Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser, MFR
THE NATIONAL PATRIOTS’ POSITION
The National Patriots supports President Tinubu’s efforts to restore petroleum production, attract investment, expand private refining and use gas to power industrialisation.
We call for independently reconciled revenue reporting, competitive crude supply to domestic refineries, timely gas infrastructure, environmental restoration and measurable benefits for host communities.
Nigeria must judge petroleum reform by revenue remitted, products refined, factories powered, jobs created and prosperity retained at home.
Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser, MFR
President, The National Patriots
Former Special Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan, GCFR
Vice-Chairman, Strategic Communications Committee, Buhari PCC 2019
Member,Strategy Committee, Presidency 2023.
